He said that in 2013, and now we're in 2026, not only is it possible, but it's very likely.
I am glad about it. I think social media, in its current ad-infested, addiction-fueled data-harvesting form, is pure poison.
Why it is worth reading is his thinking about the causes and outcomes is so clear. Its still useful today.
Thank you, ordered :-)
From Part II: The Implications Of A MADCOM World—Three Scenarios For The Future: https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep03728.5?seq=2
"Heterogeneous democracies like the United States devolve into perpetual conflict as adversaries use MADCOMs to manipulate the population, by exacerbating cultural differences and undermining narratives that unify the country. The social consensus disintegrates, and political opponents are labeled traitors and enemies...
"The US public believes that MADCOM activities are just a more sophisticated form of advertising, and reflexively relies on appeals to free speech. In fact, there are active manipulation campaigns pushing these narratives to convince the public it isn’t being manipulated at all. Any time people interact with an electronic device—whether a smartphone, augmented-reality device, or social media—their data is captured, their behavior is tested and recorded, and algorithms adapt to make devices more addictive, advertisements more persuasive, and propaganda more manipulative...
"Some individuals flee to private social spaces online, but this reinforces their filter bubbles, exacerbating political polarization. A small number of people flee online social spaces entirely, creating a minor resurgence in offline, mass-market media. These information-savvy individuals are the least likely to be susceptible to disinformation in the first place, so their absence simply removes rational voices from the conversation. The affluent pay for the luxury of privacy, as brands emerge specifically targeting those who wish to protect their data and their cognition...
"Agreed-upon facts become a relic of the past. No one knows what is true anymore, because expertise has been subsumed to the tyranny of MADCOM-manipulated public opinion. AI video- and speech-manipulation tools invent and revise reality on the fly. The only truth is what you can convince people to believe. The new definition of a fact is “information that aligns with preconceived opinions,” and any contrary evidence is discarded as likely disinformation. The story is all that matters. The three-hundred- year-old Age of Enlightenment, based on reason and a quest for truth, ends."
(Full piece: https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep03728?searchText=&searchU...)
I'm in complete agreement, but I will say that this attitude has left me pretty isolated as I'm getting older. For better or worse, most people use Social Media to stay connected so I have wound up pretty connectionless over time.
I've been thinking about making a new Facebook account just to try and connect with local people playing TTRPGs, because that's apparently still where most of the organizing is. Unfortunately Facebook wants a fucking government ID now so I'm probably not going to do that
even in late March '26, the bookstores and game stores selling TTRPG stuff in my area still have flyers for meetups and I live in ultra unhip/retro Dallas TX. Just go to a place that sells TTRPGs and look around or ask someone.
now that i've posted my flippant remark. Yes, I agree Facebook Groups is a hub for stuff like this and most other hobbies. That is just a fact unfortunately.
But over time, something happens. No one has a novel, brilliant insight 1-2 times a week. So once they really turn in and decide to make a serious effort with their channel, the quality of their content suffers. Maybe it's not quite click-bait, but it's less genuine and more formulaic than their original work. A bit more sensational. Videos are reaching for reasons to exist, since the author needs to keep pumping them out.
I wouldn't quite call it corruption, but it's a clear degradation. In principle it's not a novel problem, since people have been writing weekly editorials for a long time. But, there seems to be something about the Youtube format that makes it such that the big channels must always play the game and pump out sub-par content.
However, given my experience during Digg's v4 attempt this past year, I will say being willing to put yourself out there has served as a pseudo-networking activity and I've gotten the chance to speak with several people and now I'm giving talks "out there".
If you want to be profitable, or widely watched, you have to play to the algorithm.
YouTube seems to strongly boost channels that post regular videos in the 10-20 minute range, and actively incentivizes clickbait through AB Testing tools for titles and thumbnails.
There are channels that post irregularly, with long form videos, but they get buried.
That is to say, the whole post is a bit of an internet old-head complaint. Reminds me of baby boomers complaining about a "decline" in homeownership and having children without acknowledging the massive shifts in the economic accessibility that support these milestones.
It's easy to write a post like this when you've already built a following because you started when social media was a greenfield experience. It's much harder when you have to compete for signal while being pressured to build a brand and perform at your day job.
Though I also notice awareness around this issue is rising (e.g. smartphone bans in school, initiatives like bluesky), which is good, I guess. All of this is still a society-wide experiment without control group.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/postbroadcast-democracy... - absolute banger
-- Groucho Marx (probably)
I looked through the comments and the vast majority are also painfully obvious AI.
I know for me personally it would do the opposite, and if i saw someone i was following make a post similar, I would unfollow. Not like it matters on a site like linkedin though where they will just attempt to feed people the garbage regardless if they follow or not.
Who's falling behind? What does falling behind even mean if the OP doesn't care about numbers and really doesn't want to play the social media game?
Social media as it existed is gone, because people got tired of it, just as they got tired of geocities and myspace before that.
The new iteration is really bad, and there's a good chance people will get tired of it just as quickly as they got over the older ones.
Meanwhile, let's try to ignore stupid people doing stupid things with AI as much as we can.